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2015–16 South Pacific cyclone season
The 2015–16 South Pacific cyclone season is the period of the year when most tropical cyclones form within the South Pacific Ocean to the east of 160°E. The season officially runs from November 1, 2015 to April 30, 2016, however a tropical cyclone could form at any time between July 1, 2015 and June 30, 2016 and would count towards the season total. During the season, tropical cyclones will be officially monitored by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) in Nadi, Fiji and the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centers in Brisbane, Australia and Wellington, New Zealand. The United States Armed Forces through the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) will also monitor the basin and issue unofficial warnings for American interests. RSMC Nadi attaches a number and an F suffix to tropical disturbances that form in or move into the basin while the JTWC designates significant tropical cyclones with a number and a P suffix. RSMC Nadi, TCWC Wellington and TCWC Brisbane all use the Australian Tropical Cyclone Intensity Scale and estimate windspeeds over a period of ten minutes, while the JTWC estimated sustained winds over a 1-minute period, which are subsequently compared to the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale (SSHWS).
==Seasonal forecasts==
After the occurrences of Tropical Cyclone Raquel and Tropical Depression 01F during July and August 2015, it was noted by the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS), that an ongoing El Nino episode, might mean that more tropical cyclones occur in the basin than usual during the season. It was also noted that during previous El Nino episodes the season started early, with systems developing before the start of the season on November 1.〔〔 As a result, the FMS expected the tropical cyclone season to start during October 2015.〔〔 During September 24, Meteo France announced that there was a 90% chance of either a moderate tropical storm, severe tropical storm or tropical cyclone, impacting the waters surrounding French Polynesia during the season. Ahead of the cyclone season, the FMS, the BoM, Meteo France, New Zealand's MetService and National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and various other Pacific Meteorological services, all contributed towards the Island Climate Update tropical cyclone outlook that was released during October 2015.〔
The outlook took into account the strong El Nino conditions that had been observed across the Pacific and analogue seasons that had ENSO neutral and weak El Nino conditions occurring during the season.〔 The outlook called for an above average number of tropical cyclones for the 2015–16 season, with eleven to thirteen named tropical cyclones to occur between 135°E and 120°W compared to an average of 10-12.〔 At least six of the tropical cyclones were expected to become category 3 severe tropical cyclones, while four could become category 4 severe tropical cyclones. It was also noted that Category 5 severe tropical cyclones, with 10-minute sustained windspeeds of were known to occur during El Nino events.〔 In addition to contributing towards the Island Climate Update outlook the BoM and the FMS, issued their own seasonal forecasts for the South Pacific region.〔〔 The BoM issued a seasonal forecast for both the Western and Eastern South Pacific.〔 The Western region between 142.5°E and 165°E was predicted to have a 15% chance of having an above average number of tropical cyclones, while the Eastern region between 165°E and 120°W was predicted to have a 48% chance of having an above average number of tropical cyclones.〔 Within their outlook the FMS predicted that between ten and fourteen tropical cyclones, would occur within the basin compared to an average of around 7.3 cyclones.〔 Between four and eight of these tropical cyclones were expected to intensify into category 3 severe tropical cyclones, while 3-7 might intensify into Category 4 or 5 severe tropical cyclones.〔 They also reported that the tropical cyclone genesis trough was expected to be displaced far eastwards of its long term average position.〔 This was based on the expected and predicted ENSO conditions, and the existence of the Pacific warm pool of sub-surface temperature anomalies in this region.〔
Both the Island Climate Update and the FMS tropical cyclone outlooks assessed the risk of a tropical cyclone affecting a certain island or territory.〔〔 As the tropical cyclone genesis trough of low pressure was expected to be located near to and to the east of the International Dateline, normal or slightly above normal activity was expected for areas near the dateline.〔〔 With the exception of Kiribati, Papua New Guinea, New Caledonia, Niue and Tonga, the Island Climate Update predicted that all areas would experience an elevated risk of being affected by multiple tropical cyclones.〔 The FMS's outlook predicted that the Solomon and Northern Cook Islands, Wallis and Futuna, Tokelau, Samoa and French Polynesia had a highly elevated chance of being affected by a tropical cyclone.〔 Vanuatu, Fiji, Niue and the Southern Cook Islands had an elevated risk, while a normal risk was anticipated for New Caledonia, Tuvalu and Tonga.〔
抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』
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